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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracle
Mjz · 5 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Mjz · 5 games
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
33%

Mad Kings

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Gardick · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
Michael · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
payk · 9 games
33%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Oscar · 9 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Vitaly · 8 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 8 games
63%
Sven
Sven
Parker · 8 games
38%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Yadomi · 8 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
274 picks · 397 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
263 picks · 394 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 434 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
222 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
220 picks · 566 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
202 picks · 182 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
202 picks · 289 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
201 picks · 100 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Mad Kings
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:28
Thunder Awaken 52%Mad Kings 48%
The model gave 52% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 44:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaLumière
51% · 29 games55% · 84 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
53% · 63 games52% · 91 game
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Doom
DoomOscar
42% · 154 games48% · 135 games
Vengeful SpiritStingeR
Vengeful Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMjz
56% · 83 games48% · 104 games
LionMichael
Lion
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeGenek
45% · 85 games
Game 2prediction correct3:7
Thunder Awaken 53%Mad Kings 47%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 11:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaLumière
43% · 74 games50% · 208 games
PuckParker
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastOscar
53% · 174 games46% · 310 games
DoomFrank
Doom
Earthshaker
EarthshakerDarkMago
59% · 73 games52% · 174 games
Dark WillowMichael
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickGenek
50% · 308 games53% · 81 game
ChenStingeR
Chen
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMjz
46% · 144 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 58%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2