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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 33 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 25 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 25 games
76%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 21 game
81%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 16 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 16 games
81%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 16 games
100%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 19 games
37%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
36%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 14 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 13 games
54%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
694 picks · 498 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
492 picks · 991 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
401 picks · 510 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
390 picks · 195 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
365 picks · 678 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 545 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
319 picks · 294 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
306 picks · 635 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 39%
Hero pool strength65% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total65% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:26
Thunder Awaken 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night Stalker
Night StalkerPakazs
53% · 114 games46% · 33 games
AlchemistMATUMBAMAN
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierSacred
48% · 168 games62% · 118 games
Beastmasterzai
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickMatthew
42% · 142 games52% · 212 games
PuckmiCKe
Puck
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanda
53% · 95 games47% · 89 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
47% · 67 games
DawnbreakerBoxi
Dawnbreaker
Game 2prediction correct43:22
Thunder Awaken 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 45:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingPakazs
47% · 230 games54% · 42 games
SlardarMATUMBAMAN
Slardar
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSacred
38% · 159 games52% · 113 games
Tidehunterzai
Tidehunter
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMatthew
51% · 158 games48% · 281 game
PuckmiCKe
Puck
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPanda
55% · 151 game58% · 135 games
Keeper of the LightBoxi
Keeper of the Light
51% · 127 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2