ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tempestwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marssignature
DarkMago · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 21 game
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 20 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 17 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 17 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 14 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 14 games
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
590 picks · 456 bans
Puck
424 picks · 912 bans
Mars
369 picks · 584 bans
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 467 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 181 bans
Dawnbreaker
333 picks · 379 bans
Bane
321 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength68% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:30
Thunder Awaken 91%Tempest 9%
The model gave 91% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Tempest in 31:14.
Game 2prediction missed26:43
Thunder Awaken 91%Tempest 9%
The model gave 91% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Tempest in 43:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 91%
Series resultTempest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2