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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Another NA Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ezekiel · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ezekiel · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Axe
Axe
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%

Another NA Team

Tusk
Tusk
The Warden · 11 games
55%
Silencer
Silencer
FeelinG · 10 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
USH · 9 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
FeelinG · 7 games
71%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RRL · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
The Warden · 7 games
43%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
RRL · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
USH · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
996 picks · 693 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
642 picks · 470 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
589 picks · 935 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
546 picks · 407 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 416 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 371 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
520 picks · 1209 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
505 picks · 382 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Another NA Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:24
TiltedBoys 47%Another NA Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Another NA Team — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 28:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerEzekiel
46% · 110 games57% · 24 games
Monkey KingArgius
Monkey King
60% · 21 game
Ember SpiritRRL
Ember Spirit
little data
Sand KingUSH
Sand King
56% · 41 game
SnapfireThe Warden
Snapfire
43% · 24 games
UndyingFeelinG
Undying
Game 2prediction correct30:40
TiltedBoys 47%Another NA Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Another NA Team — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 1:14:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterEzekiel
50% · 281 game49% · 31 game
Templar AssassinArgius
Templar Assassin
53% · 77 games
Nature's ProphetUSH
Nature's Prophet
51% · 59 games
Storm SpiritRRL
Storm Spirit
46% · 20 games
Earth SpiritThe Warden
Earth Spirit
52% · 94 games
UndyingFeelinG
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteAnother NA Team · 58%
Series resultAnother NA Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2