PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MTMC TRAHERSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Hoodwink
bgod · 3 games
Lion
bgod · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Techies
bgod · 2 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
MC TRAHERS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
386 picks · 631 bans
Lion
379 picks · 352 bans
Mars
371 picks · 594 bans
Techies
370 picks · 304 bans
Batrider
351 picks · 758 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 347 bans
Tiny
339 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 200 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% MC TRAHERS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:9
TiltedBoys 66%MC TRAHERS 34%
The model gave 66% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 19:21.
Game 2prediction correct
TiltedBoys 66%MC TRAHERS 34%
The model gave 66% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 66%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2