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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nexus Titansloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skyward · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Skyward · 4 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
USH · 3 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%

Nexus Titans

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 501 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
576 picks · 507 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
562 picks · 1097 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
548 picks · 598 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
541 picks · 1230 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
469 picks · 1044 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
462 picks · 928 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
457 picks · 662 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:43
TiltedBoys 58%Nexus Titans 42%
The model gave 58% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Nexus Titans in 38:19.
Game 2prediction correct45:28
TiltedBoys 58%Nexus Titans 42%
The model gave 58% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 52:15.
Game 3prediction correct38:31
TiltedBoys 58%Nexus Titans 42%
The model gave 58% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 40:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 58%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3