DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
zzq · 1 game
Team Tidebound
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
405 picks · 511 bans
Muerta
396 picks · 322 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 569 bans
Lion
341 picks · 166 bans
Batrider
335 picks · 419 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 764 bans
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 463 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:31
Titan 23%Team Tidebound 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 31:56.
Game 2prediction correct12:30
Titan 23%Team Tidebound 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 26:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 77%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2