?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 13 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
cml · 11 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
xsilearn · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
YoungGodLevi · 11 games
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 10 games
30%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Roddgeee · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
xsilearn · 9 games
44%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Mac · 14 games
36%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 11 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 10 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
596 picks · 457 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
425 picks · 919 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 588 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 467 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
353 picks · 183 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
335 picks · 381 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
321 picks · 197 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 585 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:28
TNC Predator 43%Polaris Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKarma丶
50% · 78 games49% · 52 games
LinaMac
Lina
Underlord
UnderlordBok
47% · 49 games49% · 85 games
Chaos KnightNatsumi
Chaos Knight
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
50% · 127 games48% · 57 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
42% · 40 games
MarciBoomy
Marci
73% · 20 games
WarlockEyyou
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed37:29
TNC Predator 48%Polaris Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 48:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKarma丶
56% · 287 games47% · 113 games
RazorNatsumi
Razor
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBok
56% · 160 games42% · 129 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Warlock
Warlockcml
53% · 61 game50% · 134 games
RubickBoomy
Rubick
46% · 61 game
MarciForce
Marci
40% · 71 game
EnchantressEyyou
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct26:47
TNC Predator 45%Polaris Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 1:03:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKarma丶
48% · 180 games54% · 76 games
Faceless VoidNatsumi
Faceless Void
Tidehunter
TidehunterBok
53% · 144 games53% · 161 game
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorcml
54% · 137 games44% · 159 games
SnapfireBoomy
Snapfire
39% · 27 games
WarlockEyyou
Warlock
50% · 38 games
MarciForce
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 64%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3