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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 16 games
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 15 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 10 games
80%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 23 games
48%
Doom
Doomsignature
Batyuk · 18 games
61%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 16 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
27%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
524 picks · 553 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 383 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
318 picks · 710 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
313 picks · 567 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
311 picks · 197 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 439 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
TNL DOTA 63%Passion UA 37%
The model gave 63% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Game 2prediction correct
TNL DOTA 63%Passion UA 37%
The model gave 63% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Game 3prediction correct
TNL DOTA 63%Passion UA 37%
The model gave 63% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 63%
Series resultTNL DOTA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3