ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTBTOXIC BOYS SKRwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SG e-sportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TOXIC BOYS SKR
Abaddonoften banned
Jericho · 2 games
Mirana
Ztok · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Jeimari · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Ztok · 1 game
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
590 picks · 456 bans
Puck
424 picks · 912 bans
Mars
369 picks · 584 bans
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 467 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 181 bans
Dawnbreaker
333 picks · 379 bans
Bane
321 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:30
TOXIC BOYS SKR 34%SG e-sports 66%
The model gave 66% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 47:18.
Game 2prediction missed32:39
TOXIC BOYS SKR 34%SG e-sports 66%
The model gave 66% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by TOXIC BOYS SKR in 46:03.
Game 3prediction missed38:23
TOXIC BOYS SKR 34%SG e-sports 66%
The model gave 66% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by TOXIC BOYS SKR in 32:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 66%
Series resultTOXIC BOYS SKR 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3