Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
TpaBoMaH Clubloss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
VooDooSh Clubwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TpaBoMaH Club
No games played over 6 months.
VooDooSh Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
613 picks · 384 bans
Rubick
504 picks · 278 bans
Phoenix
497 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
475 picks · 393 bans
Pangolier
415 picks · 578 bans
Puck
352 picks · 956 bans
Tusk
339 picks · 284 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 886 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% TpaBoMaH Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% VooDooSh Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TpaBoMaH Club 44%VooDooSh Club 56%
The model gave 56% on VooDooSh Club — the game was taken by VooDooSh Club.
Game 2prediction missed
TpaBoMaH Club 44%VooDooSh Club 56%
The model gave 56% on VooDooSh Club — the game was taken by TpaBoMaH Club.
Game 3prediction correct
TpaBoMaH Club 44%VooDooSh Club 56%
The model gave 56% on VooDooSh Club — the game was taken by VooDooSh Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteVooDooSh Club · 56%
Series resultVooDooSh Club 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3