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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Trailer Park Boysloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Trailer Park Boys

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
NARMAN · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
25%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
eleven · 2 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Sancity · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 2 games
100%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 14 games
43%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 11 games
36%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Pugna
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 9 games
22%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
569 picks · 702 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 351 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 662 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 549 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 142 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
402 picks · 191 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 521 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 518 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Trailer Park Boys
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:26
Trailer Park Boys 43%Team Nemesis 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 25:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJaCkky
52% · 85 games35% · 20 games
Spectre23savage
Spectre
Timbersaw
Timbersaweleven
57% · 145 games47% · 367 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSancity
51% · 213 games50% · 209 games
SlardarRaven
Slardar
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
50% · 134 games53% · 71 game
TinkerJaunuel
Tinker
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
47% · 312 games50% · 222 games
Shadow DemonJhocam
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct31:36
Trailer Park Boys 43%Team Nemesis 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:20:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaJaCkky
56% · 297 games48% · 386 games
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Bristleback
Bristlebackeleven
53% · 364 games42% · 203 games
TimbersawRaven
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinySancity
48% · 499 games45% · 347 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNARMAN
59% · 138 games51% · 336 games
RingmasterJhocam
Ringmaster
Silencer
SilencerSe
54% · 212 games44% · 238 games
DisruptorJaunuel
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 65%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2