Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TRocketwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Attack on Titanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TRocket
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
Enchantress
Pamplona · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Attack on Titan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
728 picks · 460 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 459 bans
Tiny
521 picks · 386 bans
Treant Protector
521 picks · 562 bans
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
378 picks · 242 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 587 bans
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 729 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% TRocket
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Attack on Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:23
TRocket 50%Attack on Titan 50%
The model gave 50% on Attack on Titan — the game was taken by TRocket in 1:04:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenCarJua
AbaddonhFn
BeastmasterH1j4ck
Ember Spiritmurd0c
MiranaPamplona
Nyx AssassinRdO
Crystal MaidenAretes
LichMandy
Game 2prediction missed41:10
TRocket 47%Attack on Titan 53%
The model gave 53% on Attack on Titan — the game was taken by TRocket in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerCarJua
LifestealerhFn
UnderlordH1j4ck
Storm Spiritmurd0c
RubickAretes
MiranaRdO
UndyingPamplona
Treant ProtectorMandy
Model check result
Model favoriteAttack on Titan · 52%
Series resultTRocket 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2