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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 17 games
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
73%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
90%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 9 games
89%

Nigma Galaxy

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
GH · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 11 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 11 games
55%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 11 games
27%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
30%
Bane
Bane
KuroKy · 8 games
38%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 8 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
581 picks · 443 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 881 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 599 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
362 picks · 477 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
347 picks · 177 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
325 picks · 221 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
299 picks · 356 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 579 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:26
TSM 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on TSM — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 22:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
Zeusbryle-
48% · 79 games42% · 138 games
DawnbreakerSumaiL
Dawnbreaker
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTimado
53% · 180 games51% · 180 games
Monkey KingMiracle-
Monkey King
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
52% · 95 games54% · 54 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Marci
MarciMoonMeander
50% · 122 games52% · 129 games
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
Enchantress
EnchantressDuBu
47% · 116 games51% · 91 game
Nyx AssassinKuroKy
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed19:25
TSM 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on TSM — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTimado
49% · 44 games52% · 38 games
BristlebackMiracle-
Bristleback
Invoker
Invokerbryle-
50% · 47 games51% · 70 games
WindrangerSumaiL
Windranger
Enigma
EnigmaMoonMeander
64% · 54 games49% · 49 games
NecrophosMinD_ContRoL
Necrophos
Timbersaw
TimbersawSabeRLight-
45% · 74 games52% · 48 games
ZeusKuroKy
Zeus
Bane
BaneDuBu
50% · 85 games43% · 99 games
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 70%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2