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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 35 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 21 game
52%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 11 games
64%

nouns

Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
45%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 10 games
70%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
YamSun · 8 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
Husky · 8 games
75%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 593 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 487 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
436 picks · 1077 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
433 picks · 769 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 1006 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
378 picks · 201 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
371 picks · 540 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 812 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% TSM
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total59% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:1
TSM 55%nouns 45%
The model gave 55% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 26:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierbryle-
54% · 381 game48% · 250 games
DoomMoo
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey KingTimado
55% · 239 games34% · 72 games
WindrangerYamSun
Windranger
Lycan
Lycankasane
57% · 101 game43% · 309 games
Ember SpiritGunnar
Ember Spirit
Techies
TechiesAri
58% · 134 games50% · 214 games
BatriderLelis
Batrider
Oracle
OracleWhitemon
57% · 66 games41% · 76 games
LichHusky
Lich
Game 2prediction missed12:34
TSM 53%nouns 47%
The model gave 53% on TSM — the game was taken by nouns in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusTimado
42% · 118 games49% · 96 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkasane
53% · 89 games52% · 101 game
BatriderMoo
Batrider
Windranger
Windrangerbryle-
33% · 71 game59% · 157 games
PangolierGunnar
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
46% · 111 games54% · 69 games
Keeper of the LightLelis
Keeper of the Light
Pudge
PudgeAri
47% · 110 games65% · 76 games
TechiesHusky
Techies
Game 3prediction missed14:33
TSM 54%nouns 46%
The model gave 54% on TSM — the game was taken by nouns in 43:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTimado
59% · 68 games46% · 111 games
MorphlingYamSun
Morphling
Batrider
Batriderkasane
52% · 167 games48% · 67 games
Spirit BreakerMoo
Spirit Breaker
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbryle-
47% · 116 games51% · 132 games
Storm SpiritGunnar
Storm Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAri
51% · 55 games48% · 123 games
Keeper of the LightLelis
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerWhitemon
46% · 125 games53% · 98 games
TechiesHusky
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 59%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3