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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 27 games
70%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 15 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 11 games
55%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 24 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
85%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fly · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1003 picks · 697 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
652 picks · 478 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
596 picks · 951 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
546 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
532 picks · 365 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
528 picks · 393 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1198 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
501 picks · 379 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:48
TSM 39%Shopify Rebellion 61%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingTimado
45% · 14 games45% · 147 games
UrsaArteezy
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbryle-
55% · 150 games44% · 234 games
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
Pangolierkasane
50% · 270 games52% · 50 games
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Earth Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
57% · 213 games47% · 279 games
UndyingFly
Undying
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAri
55% · 63 games
Game 2prediction correct11:31
TSM 39%Shopify Rebellion 61%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTimado
47% · 103 games49% · 227 games
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
Nature's Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbryle-
59% · 136 games45% · 31 game
Anti-MageArteezy
Anti-Mage
Doom
Doomkasane
50% · 127 games50% · 43 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Slark
SlarkAri
54% · 82 games46% · 208 games
UndyingFly
Undying
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
50% · 61 game
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 66%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2