The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
Marcisignature
Timado · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 7 games
Rikioften banned
Ari · 7 games
Rubick
Ari · 7 games
Snapfire
Ari · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
MoonMeander · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 6 games
Talon Esports
Tusksignature
Q · 19 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
Hyde · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
704 picks · 447 bans
Tusk
595 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
562 picks · 449 bans
Treant Protector
504 picks · 558 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 384 bans
Snapfire
391 picks · 220 bans
Death Prophet
359 picks · 554 bans
Nature's Prophet
359 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:40
TSM 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 46:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshracbryle-
Naga SirenJabz
Beastmasterkasane
Terrorblade23savage
Chaos KnightTimado
ZeusMikoto
RubickAri
MiranaQ
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
UndyingOli
Game 2prediction missed15:40
TSM 50%Talon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on TSM — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 51:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerTimado
Monkey King23savage
Leshracbryle-
TuskMikoto
Dark Seerkasane
TidehunterJabz
IoWhitemon
RubickQ
RikiAri
UndyingOli
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 51%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2