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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 14 games
64%
Weaver
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
88%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 6 games
67%
Lina
Linasignature
bryle- · 6 games
67%

Team DogChamp

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 8 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
57%
Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 6 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yarintheslayer · 6 games
33%
Lich
Lich
Bloody Nine · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 279 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
396 picks · 505 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
361 picks · 514 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 493 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
285 picks · 479 bans
51%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
253 picks · 472 bans
51%
Wraith King
Wraith King
248 picks · 337 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
244 picks · 101 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 29%
Hero pool strength56% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:12
TSM 68%Team DogChamp 32%
The model gave 68% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 28:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
54% · 148 games48% · 159 games
Wraith KingStoneBank
Wraith King
Viper
Viperbryle-
45% · 83 games59% · 165 games
Pangolierlukiluki
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingSabeRLight-
47% · 109 games45% · 148 games
Dragon KnightBloody Nine
Dragon Knight
Mirana
MiranaMoonMeander
52% · 175 games50% · 173 games
Grimstrokeyarintheslayer
Grimstroke
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDuBu
50% · 130 games
Game 2prediction correct46:25
TSM 71%Team DogChamp 29%
The model gave 71% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTimado
48% · 112 games57% · 44 games
SlarkStoneBank
Slark
Techies
TechiesMoonMeander
57% · 3 games48% · 119 games
Sand Kinglukiluki
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
52% · 155 games50% · 230 games
Grimstrokeyarintheslayer
Grimstroke
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSabeRLight-
50% · 77 games49% · 185 games
IoBloody Nine
Io
Bane
BaneDuBu
47% · 231 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 82%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2