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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 33 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 32 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 31 game
77%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 27 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
erase · 29 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 22 games
36%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Solo · 21 game
57%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 20 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Solo · 16 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
528 picks · 786 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 600 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 534 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
480 picks · 597 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
460 picks · 389 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
439 picks · 996 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
431 picks · 793 bans
57%
Lich
Lich
390 picks · 213 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total97% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:14
Tundra Esports 86%9Pandas 14%
The model gave 86% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
51% · 165 games50% · 335 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey Kingbzm
52% · 262 games48% · 205 games
Bristlebacklaise
Bristleback
Chen
ChenWhitemon
58% · 198 games42% · 126 games
Earth SpiritSerenada
Earth Spirit
Abaddon
Abaddon33
46% · 67 games55% · 334 games
Clockwerklupsione
Clockwerk
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
49% · 547 games48% · 239 games
Shadow DemonSolo
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct33:27
Tundra Esports 86%9Pandas 14%
The model gave 86% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
44% · 287 games54% · 276 games
Dragon KnightV-Tune
Dragon Knight
Magnus
Magnusdyrachyo
55% · 351 game54% · 176 games
Monkey KingSerenada
Monkey King
Necrophos
Necrophos33
33% · 5 games53% · 184 games
Dawnbreakerlaise
Dawnbreaker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
45% · 91 game52% · 333 games
Clockwerklupsione
Clockwerk
Batrider
BatriderWhitemon
46% · 510 games50% · 275 games
PhoenixSolo
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 97%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2