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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 42 games
81%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 31 game
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 31 game
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 29 games
62%

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jabz · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 13 games
31%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Q · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
474 picks · 705 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
384 picks · 750 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
361 picks · 365 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
353 picks · 213 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 637 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
334 picks · 660 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 423 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
314 picks · 479 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:31
Tundra Esports 69%Aurora Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCrystallis
51% · 131 game51% · 75 games
Nature's ProphetNightfall
Nature's Prophet
Bristleback
Bristleback33
50% · 224 games47% · 103 games
BrewmasterTORONTOTOKYO
Brewmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
56% · 208 games56% · 35 games
Rikikiyotaka
Riki
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
52% · 55 games43% · 204 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Slark
SlarkSaksa
53% · 48 games47% · 249 games
TuskPanto
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed9:41
Tundra Esports 66%Aurora Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
59% · 67 games47% · 28 games
Anti-MageNightfall
Anti-Mage
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
48% · 9 games56% · 71 game
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
Dark Seer
Medusa
Medusa33
43% · 89 games62% · 24 games
Rikikiyotaka
Riki
Slark
SlarkSaksa
46% · 9 games47% · 33 games
GrimstrokePanto
Grimstroke
Silencer
SilencerWhitemon
38% · 41 game50% · 59 games
RingmasterMira
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed24:42
Tundra Esports 68%Aurora Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallis
58% · 108 games51% · 199 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Bristleback
Bristleback33
46% · 280 games51% · 253 games
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Ember Spirit
Tiny
Tinybzm
46% · 473 games53% · 179 games
Sand KingTORONTOTOKYO
Sand King
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
49% · 268 games47% · 268 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageWhitemon
37% · 15 games51% · 245 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 81%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3