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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 37 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 31 game
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 30 games
70%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 28 games
54%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 19 games
58%

Aurora Gaming

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 23 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 23 games
39%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 21 game
62%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 20 games
70%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Mikoto · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
776 picks · 356 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
595 picks · 301 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
558 picks · 449 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 550 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
547 picks · 666 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 306 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
493 picks · 748 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
479 picks · 544 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total83% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:7
Tundra Esports 70%Aurora Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPure~
51% · 214 games53% · 188 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Invoker
Invokerbzm
50% · 131 game49% · 119 games
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
Tidehunter
Axe
Axe33
42% · 137 games44% · 151 game
LeshracMikoto
Leshrac
Naga Siren
Naga SirenWhitemon
59% · 125 games49% · 205 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderAri
53% · 311 games49% · 255 games
WarlockOli
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct36:22
Tundra Esports 70%Aurora Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPure~
53% · 247 games50% · 8 games
Phantom LancerNightfall
Phantom Lancer
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbzm
52% · 203 games50% · 170 games
LeshracMikoto
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner33
50% · 328 games45% · 243 games
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
52% · 190 games49% · 405 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
51% · 175 games50% · 317 games
JakiroOli
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 83%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2