FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Rubicksignature
9Class · 40 games
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 37 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 28 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 27 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 25 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 24 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
Tinysignature
Save- · 27 games
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 23 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 22 games
Svenoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
Doomoften banned
MieRo · 17 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
441 picks · 373 bans
Hoodwink
396 picks · 448 bans
Weaver
388 picks · 821 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
368 picks · 766 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 508 bans
Clockwerk
339 picks · 506 bans
Jakiro
335 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
Tundra Esports 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistPure~
UrsaNightfall
Sand KingRAMZES666
Dragon KnightgpK~
ViperTopson
TimbersawMieRo
MiranaWhitemon
Shadow DemonTORONTOTOKYO
Dark Willow9Class
GrimstrokeSave-
Game 2prediction missed10:27
Tundra Esports 56%BETBOOM TEAM 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackPure~
UrsaNightfall
Queen of PainTopson
BeastmasterMieRo
MarsRAMZES666
Dragon KnightgpK~
Tinker9Class
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
DisruptorWhitemon
Keeper of the LightSave-
Game 3prediction correct28:19
Tundra Esports 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerPure~
MorphlingNightfall
Centaur WarrunnerRAMZES666
Sand KingMieRo
DazzleTopson
KunkkagpK~
Naga Siren9Class
PhoenixTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow DemonWhitemon
GrimstrokeSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3