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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 32 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 32 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 30 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 21 game
52%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
67%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 29 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 24 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 23 games
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 23 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 622 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
614 picks · 534 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1329 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
543 picks · 1078 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
468 picks · 516 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
466 picks · 964 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1166 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
447 picks · 638 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:33
Tundra Esports 55%Evil Geniuses 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
66% · 126 games40% · 181 game
BloodseekerPakazs
Bloodseeker
Doom
Doom33
53% · 229 games46% · 225 games
Monkey KingChris Luck
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMalr1ne
57% · 193 games50% · 65 games
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
TechiesSneyking
57% · 188 games40% · 172 games
WindrangerMatthew
Windranger
Pugna
PugnaImmersion
58% · 91 game36% · 184 games
Skywrath MagePanda
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed13:23
Tundra Esports 53%Evil Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
53% · 211 games46% · 99 games
Shadow FiendChris Luck
Shadow Fiend
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
53% · 107 games39% · 170 games
BloodseekerPakazs
Bloodseeker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMalr1ne
55% · 187 games54% · 128 games
DawnbreakerWisper
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonImmersion
67% · 42 games46% · 145 games
PugnaMatthew
Pugna
Techies
TechiesSneyking
52% · 160 games42% · 165 games
Skywrath MagePanda
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2