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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 14 games
57%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 14 games
71%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 14 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 11 games
91%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 10 games
40%

Gaimin Gladiators

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 15 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 12 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 12 games
58%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Quinn · 11 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
tOfu · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
BOOM · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
394 picks · 381 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
353 picks · 355 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
331 picks · 229 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
286 picks · 288 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
211 picks · 111 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
209 picks · 265 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 148 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
191 picks · 523 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:31
Tundra Esports 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
50% · 155 games54% · 146 games
Linadyrachyo
Lina
Zeus
ZeusNine
42% · 128 games51% · 141 game
DoomAce
Doom
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
46% · 89 games57% · 221 game
PuckQuinn
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
47% · 214 games54% · 194 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSneyking
50% · 233 games49% · 117 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed6:26
Tundra Esports 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
62% · 81 game49% · 153 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNine
39% · 92 games53% · 62 games
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
53% · 160 games50% · 115 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
43% · 229 games50% · 130 games
IoSeleri
Io
Rubick
RubickSneyking
54% · 181 game49% · 283 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2