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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 25 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 45 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 35 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 29 games
76%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 27 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 26 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 25 games
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
697 picks · 599 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
570 picks · 495 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
463 picks · 1135 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
463 picks · 842 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
413 picks · 1057 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
392 picks · 552 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
390 picks · 215 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 847 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total63% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:8
Tundra Esports 44%Gaimin Gladiators 56%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
50% · 109 games51% · 53 games
Juggernautdyrachyo
Juggernaut
Timbersaw
TimbersawNine
43% · 115 games49% · 111 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
52% · 49 games45% · 37 games
BrewmasterAce
Brewmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
54% · 130 games55% · 155 games
BatriderSeleri
Batrider
Oracle
OracleSneyking
48% · 58 games50% · 105 games
Skywrath MagetOfu
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed31:7
Tundra Esports 44%Gaimin Gladiators 56%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 22:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batrider33
51% · 209 games46% · 49 games
Dark SeerAce
Dark Seer
Sven
SvenSkiter
53% · 55 games49% · 89 games
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
Bloodseeker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNine
55% · 79 games49% · 257 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Slark
SlarkSaksa
46% · 105 games48% · 116 games
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Keeper of the Light
Techies
TechiesSneyking
56% · 128 games44% · 65 games
OracleSeleri
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 63%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2