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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 32 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 32 games
66%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 32 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 31 game
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
64%

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 30 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 29 games
66%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Scofield · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 17 games
41%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 646 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
497 picks · 800 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
482 picks · 481 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 552 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
425 picks · 364 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
420 picks · 1012 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 760 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
385 picks · 911 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total89% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:11
Tundra Esports 75%Heroic 25%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcidyrachyo
48% · 137 games57% · 161 game
Monkey KingYuma
Monkey King
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
46% · 313 games59% · 42 games
LycanWisper
Lycan
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
49% · 130 games53% · 143 games
Primal Beast4nalog
Primal Beast
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSaksa
45% · 63 games49% · 200 games
BatriderScofield
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerWhitemon
50% · 4 games48% · 101 game
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed25:47
Tundra Esports 75%Heroic 25%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 54:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetdyrachyo
43% · 57 games47% · 87 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
56% · 229 games47% · 329 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
53% · 117 games49% · 163 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Silencer
SilencerWhitemon
little data50% · 193 games
MuertaScofield
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSaksa
53% · 462 games47% · 93 games
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct43:25
Tundra Esports 75%Heroic 25%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
49% · 146 games48% · 147 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbzm
50% · 303 games50% · 390 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Abaddon
Abaddon33
48% · 65 games56% · 215 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
50% · 433 games49% · 75 games
JakiroScofield
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
49% · 91 game52% · 211 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 89%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3