PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LULevel UP MarsBahisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 24 games
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 14 games
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 11 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
Level UP MarsBahis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
423 picks · 691 bans
Mars
401 picks · 648 bans
Techies
398 picks · 324 bans
Lion
395 picks · 361 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 473 bans
Batrider
382 picks · 845 bans
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
Crystal Maiden
351 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:19
Tundra Esports 95%Level UP MarsBahis 5%
The model gave 95% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:46.
Game 2prediction correct43:9
Tundra Esports 95%Level UP MarsBahis 5%
The model gave 95% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 95%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2