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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
9Class · 22 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 21 game
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 18 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Pure~ · 16 games
50%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 15 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 14 games
64%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 15 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 14 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Sancity · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
347 picks · 296 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 435 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
329 picks · 253 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
319 picks · 539 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
298 picks · 283 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
295 picks · 412 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
294 picks · 796 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
293 picks · 472 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:12
Tundra Esports 63%Natus Vincere 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenShad
50% · 86 games60% · 10 games
Drow RangerYuragi
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
49% · 85 games58% · 74 games
EnigmaBOOM
Enigma
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
62% · 63 games45% · 71 game
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Muerta
MuertaSaksa
45% · 60 games52% · 76 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
46% · 73 games43% · 136 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct39:15
Tundra Esports 65%Natus Vincere 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Visage
Visage33
52% · 74 games43% · 86 games
Nature's ProphetYuragi
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendShad
53% · 110 games47% · 167 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
61% · 201 game47% · 101 game
DoomBOOM
Doom
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
44% · 18 games49% · 171 game
BatriderPuppey
Batrider
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
47% · 241 game49% · 119 games
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2