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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 34 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 33 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 32 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 28 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 25 games
52%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
33 · 23 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
67%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 16 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Copy · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 14 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 12 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Copy · 11 games
73%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
436 picks · 385 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
355 picks · 188 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 340 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 791 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 837 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
277 picks · 213 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
276 picks · 373 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
275 picks · 539 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total66% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:34
Tundra Esports 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 59:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallis
52% · 127 games56% · 24 games
Anti-Magegotthejuice
Anti-Mage
Doom
Doom33
53% · 191 game52% · 255 games
EarthshakerNiku
Earthshaker
Puck
Puckbzm
50% · 227 games50% · 195 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinySaksa
45% · 293 games50% · 248 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaTobi
45% · 146 games51% · 262 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct31:18
Tundra Esports 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallis
51% · 248 games51% · 284 games
Doomgotthejuice
Doom
Bristleback
Bristleback33
58% · 335 games48% · 213 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand Kingbzm
46% · 160 games48% · 229 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
50% · 200 games52% · 276 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Undying
UndyingTobi
51% · 162 games45% · 103 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct23:13
Tundra Esports 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCrystallis
50% · 20 games51% · 146 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Broodmother
Broodmother33
43% · 43 games58% · 79 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Sand King
Sand Kingbzm
55% · 203 games53% · 153 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Pugna
PugnaSaksa
49% · 149 games46% · 33 games
MiranaZayac
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorTobi
47% · 85 games44% · 89 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 66%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3