BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 33 games
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 25 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 21 game
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 21 game
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 17 games
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
777 picks · 354 bans
Disruptor
582 picks · 596 bans
Hoodwink
561 picks · 299 bans
Dragon Knight
464 picks · 538 bans
Tusk
462 picks · 275 bans
Jakiro
460 picks · 283 bans
Mars
452 picks · 737 bans
Puck
431 picks · 1123 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:21
Tundra Esports 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterPure~
Abaddongotthejuice
Earthshakerbzm
Pangolierpma
Centaur Warrunner33
PuckNiku
HoodwinkAri
JakiroRiddys
TuskWhitemon
Spirit BreakerZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1