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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 42 games
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 31 game
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 29 games
86%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 28 games
64%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lich
Lich
Riddys · 28 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
pma · 28 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 27 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 26 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 24 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
76%
Lion
Lionsignature
Daze · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
536 picks · 744 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
437 picks · 318 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
433 picks · 707 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 403 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
388 picks · 882 bans
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
387 picks · 686 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
385 picks · 1030 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 511 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 69%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:13
Tundra Esports 70%Natus Vincere Junior 30%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackCrystallis
54% · 188 games48% · 223 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
47% · 222 games58% · 235 games
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand King33
49% · 115 games51% · 65 games
Lycanpma
Lycan
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
47% · 13 games53% · 106 games
EarthshakerZayac
Earthshaker
Tusk
TuskSaksa
45% · 187 games46% · 96 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct25:6
Tundra Esports 71%Natus Vincere Junior 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerbzm
29% · 3 games44% · 78 games
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
47% · 160 games41% · 116 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
59% · 78 games52% · 115 games
MagnusNiku
Magnus
Bane
BaneWhitemon
53% · 11 games48% · 22 games
RikiZayac
Riki
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSaksa
55% · 93 games55% · 14 games
RingmasterRiddys
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2