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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
80%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 25 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 24 games
71%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 21 game
81%

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 29 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 27 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 26 games
46%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 23 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
61%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 18 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 914 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
488 picks · 523 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 424 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
444 picks · 302 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1070 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 581 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 675 bans
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 587 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 51%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:27
Tundra Esports 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 57:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendParker
51% · 208 games57% · 142 games
ClinkzNatsumi
Clinkz
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
55% · 428 games44% · 569 games
Dragon KnightYopaj
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner33
51% · 344 games45% · 239 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
57% · 132 games52% · 43 games
VenomancerSkem
Venomancer
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
47% · 529 games44% · 648 games
TinyTims
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct18:15
Tundra Esports 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendParker
49% · 237 games50% · 262 games
BristlebackNatsumi
Bristleback
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
48% · 372 games49% · 579 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
49% · 195 games46% · 144 games
BrewmasterForce
Brewmaster
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
49% · 351 game57% · 144 games
Keeper of the LightSkem
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
52% · 318 games50% · 344 games
Shadow DemonTims
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct25:19
Tundra Esports 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
49% · 374 games46% · 128 games
RazorNatsumi
Razor
Morphling
MorphlingParker
46% · 182 games54% · 401 game
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
50% · 256 games53% · 213 games
UnderlordForce
Underlord
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
54% · 378 games50% · 310 games
Shadow DemonTims
Shadow Demon
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
47% · 547 games50% · 685 games
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3