?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Palianytsialoss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 22 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 20 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 20 games
80%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 19 games
74%

Palianytsia

Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 17 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 16 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
QBFY · 15 games
53%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 12 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
kreker · 10 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
fortniteMan · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 497 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
368 picks · 341 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 461 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 596 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
296 picks · 355 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
274 picks · 142 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
251 picks · 409 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
250 picks · 252 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 44%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:25
Tundra Esports 86%Palianytsia 14%
The model gave 86% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNightfall
54% · 135 games45% · 95 games
MedusaCrystallize
Medusa
Sand King
Sand King33
48% · 87 games45% · 106 games
Queen of PainMoonlight
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
51% · 285 games47% · 52 games
DawnbreakerfortniteMan
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWhitemon
50% · 194 games49% · 309 games
Clockwerkkreker
Clockwerk
Muerta
MuertaSaksa
53% · 104 games55% · 243 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Game 2prediction correct38:17
Tundra Esports 86%Palianytsia 14%
The model gave 86% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNightfall
51% · 187 games44% · 193 games
LunaCrystallize
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
52% · 212 games52% · 89 games
LeshracMoonlight
Leshrac
Enigma
Enigma33
53% · 151 game49% · 291 game
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Magnus
MagnusSaksa
53% · 134 games51% · 19 games
Ogre Magikreker
Ogre Magi
Chen
ChenWhitemon
57% · 120 games42% · 212 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 97%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2