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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
78%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 21 game
67%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 20 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 19 games
68%

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 19 games
84%
Invoker
Invokersignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 16 games
81%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 15 games
40%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 14 games
57%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
632 picks · 994 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 441 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
455 picks · 640 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 490 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
450 picks · 1053 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
443 picks · 278 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
421 picks · 583 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 514 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:28
Tundra Esports 56%PARIVISION 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 55:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezPure~
54% · 95 games51% · 234 games
WindrangerSatanic
Windranger
Batrider
Batrider33
48% · 320 games50% · 241 game
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Tiny
Tinybzm
49% · 425 games52% · 110 games
Primal BeastSSS
Primal Beast
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
51% · 121 game50% · 297 games
Ringmaster9Class
Ringmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
45% · 186 games51% · 265 games
Shadow DemonDukalis
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct42:20
Tundra Esports 56%PARIVISION 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPure~
57% · 60 games48% · 272 games
WindrangerSatanic
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
48% · 270 games55% · 93 games
HuskarNo[o]ne
Huskar
Batrider
Batrider33
49% · 188 games55% · 134 games
Primal BeastSSS
Primal Beast
Tiny
TinyAri
43% · 314 games52% · 151 game
Keeper of the Light9Class
Keeper of the Light
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
43% · 110 games53% · 292 games
Shadow DemonDukalis
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2