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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 20 games
80%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 19 games
68%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 16 games
81%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 14 games
43%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 26 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 17 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 14 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
799 picks · 560 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 400 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 557 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 419 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
460 picks · 743 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
415 picks · 842 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
415 picks · 292 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 866 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength50% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:33
Tundra Esports 69%PSG Quest 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNine
59% · 158 games47% · 74 games
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Razor
RazorSkiter
59% · 130 games48% · 240 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Enigma
Enigma33
54% · 261 game45% · 82 games
TidehunterWuiter
Tidehunter
Disruptor
DisruptorSaksa
62% · 203 games43% · 334 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Io
IoSneyking
48% · 92 games30% · 114 games
SilencerKaori
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed8:27
Tundra Esports 67%PSG Quest 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNine
50% · 59 games56% · 115 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
48% · 139 games55% · 356 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
54% · 176 games43% · 56 games
VenomancerWuiter
Venomancer
Tiny
TinySaksa
46% · 452 games46% · 184 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSneyking
42% · 35 games54% · 150 games
DisruptorOmaR
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 81%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2