OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 18 games
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 16 games
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 14 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 13 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Nine · 12 games
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 167 bans
Hoodwink
353 picks · 127 bans
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 346 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 519 bans
Lina
251 picks · 412 bans
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 242 bans
Luna
246 picks · 332 bans
Puck
235 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 47%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:3
Tundra Esports 80%SG e-sports 20%
The model gave 80% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:38.
Game 2prediction correct32:11
Tundra Esports 80%SG e-sports 20%
The model gave 80% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 80%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2