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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 34 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 21 game
71%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
70%
Riki
Rikisignature
Saksa · 19 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 19 games
63%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 26 games
77%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
85%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
999 picks · 697 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
648 picks · 482 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
594 picks · 946 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
540 picks · 402 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 428 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
536 picks · 367 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1206 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
505 picks · 381 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:30
Tundra Esports 52%Shopify Rebellion 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
51% · 73 games48% · 116 games
UrsaArteezy
Ursa
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
52% · 71 game41% · 71 game
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageNine
52% · 50 games59% · 52 games
ChenFly
Chen
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
48% · 84 games48% · 42 games
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Earth Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAramis
71% · 3 games
Game 2prediction correct39:33
Tundra Esports 53%Shopify Rebellion 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 57:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
63% · 55 games42% · 50 games
AlchemistArteezy
Alchemist
Monkey King
Monkey KingNine
49% · 120 games42% · 43 games
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
Legion Commander
Doom
Doom33
58% · 113 games47% · 322 games
MiranaFly
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorSneyking
51% · 138 games54% · 40 games
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Earth Spirit
Techies
TechiesAramis
54% · 29 games
Game 3prediction missed31:41
Tundra Esports 51%Shopify Rebellion 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 1:00:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
39% · 90 gameslittle data
MuertaArteezy
Muerta
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderNine
31% · 15 games56% · 46 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Abaddon
Abaddon33
53% · 40 games52% · 131 game
MiranaFly
Mirana
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSneyking
59% · 16 games38% · 9 games
Spirit BreakerCr1t-
Spirit Breaker
Techies
TechiesAramis
57% · 25 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 53%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3