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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 41 game
83%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 33 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 31 game
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 30 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 29 games
62%

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
46%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 703 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
383 picks · 750 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
366 picks · 372 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
354 picks · 210 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 634 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
337 picks · 659 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 420 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
313 picks · 570 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 36%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total86% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct57:31
Tundra Esports 74%Shopify Rebellion 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 54:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
55% · 141 game50% · 138 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
50% · 220 games46% · 281 game
BristlebackPakazs
Bristleback
Doom
Doom33
44% · 274 games46% · 397 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskSaksa
46% · 314 games61% · 88 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Bane
BaneWhitemon
59% · 57 games49% · 102 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed28:41
Tundra Esports 71%Shopify Rebellion 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallis
40% · 223 games54% · 348 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
46% · 379 games56% · 313 games
BristlebackPakazs
Bristleback
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
47% · 105 games48% · 317 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
47% · 235 games65% · 125 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskSaksa
44% · 286 games54% · 125 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction correct23:9
Tundra Esports 72%Shopify Rebellion 28%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 21:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbzm
49% · 233 games45% · 172 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Abaddon
Abaddon33
43% · 96 games53% · 130 games
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Slark
SlarkCrystallis
51% · 63 games49% · 173 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Tinker
TinkerWhitemon
51% · 98 games57% · 65 games
RingmasterHellscream
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskSaksa
55% · 241 game48% · 191 game
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 86%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3