Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomoften banned
33 · 38 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 31 game
Mirana
Sneyking · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 29 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 29 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 23 games
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Talon Esports
Rubicksignature
Q · 28 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 25 games
Tinysignature
Q · 24 games
Tusk
Q · 24 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 23 games
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 21 game
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 21 game
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
641 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
508 picks · 332 bans
Doom
453 picks · 978 bans
Batrider
408 picks · 934 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 861 bans
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
385 picks · 1011 bans
Pugna
381 picks · 449 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:26
Tundra Esports 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSkiter
Monkey King23savage
Timbersaw33
Queen of PainMikoto
PangolierNine
EnigmaJabz
BatriderSaksa
Spirit BreakerQ
ClockwerkSneyking
RubickOli
Game 2prediction missed5:34
Tundra Esports 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSkiter
Medusa23savage
Doom33
MeepoJabz
TimbersawNine
Storm SpiritMikoto
ChenSneyking
RubickQ
LionSaksa
SilencerOli
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2