Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Beastmastersignature
33 · 45 games
Doomsignature
33 · 36 games
Dark Seersignature
33 · 30 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
Tusksignature
Saksa · 30 games
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 25 games
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
Talon Esports
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 26 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Mikoto · 22 games
Doomoften banned
Ws · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 21 game
Tusksignature
Jhocam · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
488 picks · 526 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 461 bans
Tusk
357 picks · 360 bans
Ringmaster
352 picks · 200 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 516 bans
Terrorblade
349 picks · 728 bans
Jakiro
310 picks · 197 bans
Storm Spirit
309 picks · 467 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 41%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total79% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:7
Tundra Esports 65%Talon Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom33
LinaMikoto
Queen of Painbzm
Abaddon23savage
DawnbreakerCrystallis
BristlebackWs
TuskSaksa
AxeJhocam
BaneWhitemon
Shadow ShamanKuku
Game 2prediction correct30:15
Tundra Esports 68%Talon Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother33
Medusa23savage
Queen of Painbzm
PuckMikoto
DawnbreakerCrystallis
DoomWs
UndyingWhitemon
TuskJhocam
BaneSaksa
PugnaKuku
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 79%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2