The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 27 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 23 games
Visagesignature
33 · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
33 · 17 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 13 games
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 36 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 23 games
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 16 games
Visagesignature
Xxs · 14 games
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 12 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
520 picks · 381 bans
Marci
475 picks · 697 bans
Undying
315 picks · 527 bans
Death Prophet
300 picks · 468 bans
Puck
284 picks · 652 bans
Dawnbreaker
272 picks · 377 bans
Enigma
270 picks · 856 bans
Pangolier
265 picks · 372 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:20
Tundra Esports 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom33
SlarkMonet
Chaos KnightSkiter
RazorOri
PangolierNine
MarsXxs
MiranaSaksa
MarciBoBoKa
LichSneyking
Crystal MaidenFantasy
Game 2prediction correct23:13
Tundra Esports 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkSkiter
Shadow FiendMonet
ZeusNine
DawnbreakerXxs
Broodmother33
Storm SpiritOri
MiranaSneyking
SnapfireFantasy
TinySaksa
MarciBoBoKa
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 51%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2