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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 35 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 32 games
78%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 31 game
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 27 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 25 games
64%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 49 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 42 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 42 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 37 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 32 games
63%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 31 game
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Cr1t- · 27 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 672 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 798 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
477 picks · 478 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 547 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
427 picks · 363 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
421 picks · 1001 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 912 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 763 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 8
Model total67% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
Tundra Esports 62%Team Falcons 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracbzm
56% · 186 games51% · 177 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Magnus
Magnusdyrachyo
54% · 159 games49% · 273 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
55% · 182 games35% · 44 games
AbaddonATF
Abaddon
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
46% · 150 games50% · 262 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskSaksa
50% · 266 games47% · 187 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct51:36
Tundra Esports 61%Team Falcons 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 58:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
51% · 243 games46% · 113 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Marci
Marcidyrachyo
43% · 117 games48% · 65 games
SlardarSkiter
Slardar
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
49% · 122 games52% · 194 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSaksa
49% · 63 games57% · 62 games
WarlockSneyking
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
48% · 120 games56% · 231 game
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 67%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2