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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 28 games
61%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 23 games
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 17 games
71%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 17 games
65%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 32 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 19 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 19 games
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 17 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
678 picks · 328 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 588 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
450 picks · 232 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 1122 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 654 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 248 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
342 picks · 153 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
337 picks · 394 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 78%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 5
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
Tundra Esports 42%Team Falcons 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
55% · 489 games47% · 268 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Kez
KezPure~
49% · 18 games52% · 242 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
43% · 231 game44% · 339 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
53% · 272 games53% · 71 game
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Bounty Hunter
Bane
BaneWhitemon
60% · 172 games42% · 262 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed45:21
Tundra Esports 41%Team Falcons 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
43% · 165 games54% · 29 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Kez
KezPure~
56% · 8 games61% · 50 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
46% · 154 games54% · 97 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAri
42% · 18 games51% · 132 games
MarsATF
Mars
Bane
BaneWhitemon
55% · 113 games41% · 150 games
JakiroCr1t-
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct30:38
Tundra Esports 37%Team Falcons 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:00:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
42% · 184 games55% · 122 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Abaddon
AbaddonPure~
41% · 142 games59% · 386 games
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Monkey King
Pangolier
Pangolier33
44% · 247 games53% · 292 games
MarsATF
Mars
Batrider
BatriderAri
47% · 219 games59% · 232 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
47% · 262 games49% · 22 games
Skywrath MageCr1t-
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3