ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 3:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Yandexloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Batridersignature
Ari · 44 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 32 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 32 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
Timbersawsignature
33 · 27 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 26 games
Team Yandex
Jakirosignature
Malady · 46 games
Tusksignature
Malady · 39 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 34 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 31 game
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 29 games
Tinyoften banned
Saksa · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
Ursasignature
Watson · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
673 picks · 851 bans
Tiny
578 picks · 586 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 429 bans
Warlock
481 picks · 335 bans
Shadow Demon
422 picks · 1130 bans
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 687 bans
Shadow Fiend
399 picks · 1028 bans
Mars
394 picks · 619 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:41
Tundra Esports 54%Team Yandex 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 40:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw33
MuertaWatson
GyrocopterPure~
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
Pangolierbzm
SlardarNoticed
RubickAri
HoodwinkSaksa
VenomancerWhitemon
Treant ProtectorMalady
Game 2prediction correct41:39
Tundra Esports 56%Team Yandex 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:02:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingPure~
WeaverWatson
Storm Spiritbzm
BrewmasterNoticed
Largo33
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
Keeper of the LightAri
Shadow ShamanSaksa
JakiroWhitemon
TuskMalady
Game 3prediction correct43:14
Tundra Esports 60%Team Yandex 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterbzm
LunaWatson
Monkey KingPure~
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Tidehunter33
BristlebackNoticed
PhoenixWhitemon
MiranaMalady
TuskAri
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Game 4prediction correct27:10
Tundra Esports 57%Team Yandex 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterbzm
TinyWatson
LifestealerPure~
UnderlordNoticed
Sand King33
SlardarChira JUNIOR
TuskAri
PhoenixMalady
JakiroWhitemon
HoodwinkSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultTundra Esports 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4