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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
80%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 25 games
64%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 23 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 22 games
73%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 20 games
60%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 31 game
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 24 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Infernal · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 20 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 18 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
591 picks · 921 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 421 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 515 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
432 picks · 291 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1050 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 578 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 566 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 668 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Tundra Esports 79%Yellow Submarine 21%
The model gave 79% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinParker
56% · 250 games49% · 254 games
Windrangerbottega
Windranger
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
52% · 346 games49% · 112 games
Keeper of the LightMirele
Keeper of the Light
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
44% · 214 games50% · 325 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Chen
ChenWhitemon
55% · 193 games47% · 279 games
Shadow Demonprblms
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
53% · 307 games45% · 340 games
RingmasterHtrd
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct28:31
Tundra Esports 78%Yellow Submarine 22%
The model gave 78% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaParker
48% · 249 games48% · 508 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
49% · 352 games52% · 91 game
Slarkbottega
Slark
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
53% · 240 games55% · 394 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
49% · 199 games49% · 437 games
WarlockHtrd
Warlock
Tiny
TinyAri
44% · 435 games56% · 45 games
Earth Spiritprblms
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 93%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2