Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Twisted Mindsloss 1:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Kalmychataloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Twisted Minds
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 16 games
Hoodwinksignature
Pablo · 15 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Adzantick · 12 games
Sven
Shad · 12 games
Kalmychata
Bane
smN · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
rincyq · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
hina · 1 game
Luna
rincyq · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
rincyq · 1 game
Treant Protector
smN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 226 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 749 bans
Gyrocopter
433 picks · 418 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 633 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 742 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
355 picks · 1023 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 727 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 73%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:38
Twisted Minds 42%Kalmychata 58%
The model gave 58% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 45:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterShad
UrsaRetsu
InvokerAdzantick
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
Night StalkerActor
Witch DoctorPablo
Muertaxsvampire
IoHandsken
Treant Protectorantoha
Game 2prediction missed36:22
Twisted Minds 44%Kalmychata 56%
The model gave 56% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendAdzantick
Arc WardenNattyNarwhal
AbaddonShad
DoomActor
TidehunterStoneBank
WindrangerRetsu
WeaverPablo
Dark Willowxsvampire
Ogre MagiHandsken
Treant Protectorantoha
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2