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Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
UALEIKUMNIHAOloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 14 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 14 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 14 games
79%
Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 13 games
46%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Shergarat · 11 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 10 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
b1kA · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
56%

Thunder Awaken

Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ILICH- · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 11 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 9 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Michael · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
644 picks · 688 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
525 picks · 340 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
444 picks · 945 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
435 picks · 929 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
410 picks · 861 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
394 picks · 878 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
383 picks · 450 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
382 picks · 994 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
UALEIKUMNIHAO 31%Thunder Awaken 69%
The model gave 69% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistWoE
48% · 58 games54% · 246 games
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
Naga Siren
Broodmother
BroodmotherShergarat
53% · 174 games50% · 144 games
LycanILICH-
Lycan
Leshrac
LeshracChira JUNIOR
56% · 149 games52% · 408 games
UndyingMjz
Undying
Rubick
Rubickb1kA
43% · 346 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMary_y
40% · 71 game
Game 2prediction missed23:8
UALEIKUMNIHAO 33%Thunder Awaken 67%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 27:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerWoE
42% · 41 game50% · 166 games
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanShergarat
54% · 41 game56% · 55 games
Legion CommanderILICH-
Legion Commander
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
53% · 78 games51% · 58 games
IoMjz
Io
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorb1kA
45% · 64 games
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
46% · 55 games
Game 3prediction correct17:31
UALEIKUMNIHAO 33%Thunder Awaken 67%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautWoE
50% · 53 games54% · 237 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
47% · 259 games56% · 478 games
BeastmasterILICH-
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawShergarat
48% · 183 games47% · 430 games
EnchantressMjz
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMary_y
47% · 211 games
Rubick
Rubickb1kA
46% · 439 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 81%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3