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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 17 games
41%
Mirana
Mirana
LionaX · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
LionaX · 12 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 9 games
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LionaX · 8 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 8 games
88%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
xNova · 8 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Xepher · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Natsumi · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Xepher · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
985 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
638 picks · 464 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
578 picks · 930 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
546 picks · 408 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
529 picks · 409 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1210 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:33
UD Vessuwan 24%BOOM Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerKNP
49% · 178 games55% · 235 games
Nature's ProphetYopaj
Nature's Prophet
Viper
ViperBeebie
46% · 152 games48% · 264 games
Ember SpiritNatsumi
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressLionaX
48% · 390 games53% · 317 games
PangolierFbz
Pangolier
Tusk
Tuskboombell
48% · 576 games55% · 282 games
MiranaXepher
Mirana
50% · 198 games
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct19:35
UD Vessuwan 24%BOOM Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKNP
55% · 62 gameslittle data
MuertaNatsumi
Muerta
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBeebie
47% · 150 games48% · 158 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLionaX
46% · 163 games47% · 18 games
Bounty HunterFbz
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
Tuskboombell
54% · 214 games46% · 192 games
EnchantressXepher
Enchantress
55% · 221 game
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 88%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2