DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionUuncrownedkingsloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RCHwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
uncrownedkings
No games played over 6 months.
RCH
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
348 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
343 picks · 330 bans
Hoodwink
337 picks · 386 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 477 bans
Snapfire
313 picks · 266 bans
Sven
289 picks · 301 bans
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 445 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 475 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% uncrownedkings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% uncrownedkings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
uncrownedkings 60%RCH 40%
The model gave 60% on uncrownedkings — the game was taken by RCH.
Game 2prediction missed
uncrownedkings 60%RCH 40%
The model gave 60% on uncrownedkings — the game was taken by RCH.
Model check result
Model favoriteuncrownedkings · 60%
Series resultRCH 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2