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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
V1dar Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V1dar Gaming

Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
dizzying · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
dizzying · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Groom · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Groom · 2 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Difference · 1 game
0%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Difference · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 1 game
0%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 19 games
63%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 438 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 317 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 825 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
381 picks · 874 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
361 picks · 715 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 505 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 483 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
300 picks · 531 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 36%
Hero pool strength61% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:37
V1dar Gaming 10%Natus Vincere Junior 90%
The model gave 90% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 24:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 90%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1